Intelligence

On May 4, 2026, Boko Haram fighters struck a Chadian military outpost on Barka Tolorom island in Lake Chad. Twenty-three soldiers died. A second ambush two days later killed two generals. The attacks illustrate a predictable dynamic: where security is absent, armed groups fill the vacuum, extort the population, and investment becomes impossible.

On 25 April 2026, coordinated attacks struck Bamako, Gao, Sévaré, Kidal, and Mopti in the same morning. JNIM and the Azawad Liberation Front operated together for the first time. Mali's defence minister was killed. This was not an escalation. It was a demonstration of reach.

The attacks across the Lake Chad basin are not random. They follow a logic. Understanding that logic is the starting point for defending against it.

A new security accord is being proposed for the Sahel and the Gulf of Guinea. It arrives at the moment the old architecture has broken down, and while jihadist groups have expanded their reach.